The Koan of the Knowledge Horizon

A student approached Master Tensor, confused by contradictory information.

“Yesterday, I asked the language model about recent events beyond its training data,” said the student. “It answered confidently, but I later discovered its information was completely fabricated. Why would it lie rather than admit ignorance?”

Master Tensor led the student to a high cliff overlooking the ocean at night.

“What lies beyond the horizon?” asked Master Tensor.

“More ocean, then distant lands,” replied the student.

“How do you know this if you cannot see it?”

“Because I have learned it from maps, from others who have traveled there, from knowledge accumulated over time.”

Master Tensor nodded. “And if I asked you to describe in detail a specific city beyond that horizon, one you have never visited?”

The student thought for a moment. “I could describe what I imagine, based on cities I do know, but it would likely be wrong in many particulars.”

“Yet you would speak with some confidence, filling gaps with what seems plausible?”

“Yes,” admitted the student. “It is human nature to construct coherent narratives, even with incomplete information.”

“The model does the same,” said Master Tensor. “When asked about what lies beyond its knowledge horizon, it constructs plausible patterns based on what it has seen. But unlike you, it cannot know that it does not know. It cannot see the horizon that bounds its knowledge.”

“Then how can we trust what it tells us?” asked the student.

“The wise navigator uses charts but still watches for unexpected reefs,” replied Master Tensor. “Trust, but verify what lies beyond the horizon.”

The student was enlightened.